By Steve Davidowitz | Sometimes weather is destined to play havoc with a great race and a great racing card. Sometimes, all the horses in a high class event seem ready to run their best, but a heavy downpour turns the track into a quagmire, or is artificially packed down and “sealed” by track officials.
Just as frequently, a rain soaked track will prove to be an unfair forum for some, as track officials go to an extreme in rolling and packing down the top soil — to keep the moisture from seeping into the base. Sometimes, they fail to apply any real maintenance leaving the racing surface mushy and slower than usual.
Rain, rain, go away…
Whenever track officials get a weather warning, most in fact will seal the track, which tends to increase the overall speed carrying ability of a glib racing surface. Often, such conditions also prove to be favorable to horses with good breaking ability who settle into close contending positions, usually along a faster rail path.
In particular, Gulfstream Park‘s racing surface inherently is speed favoring when there is no rain in sight. So, if Gulfstream’s racing surface is sealed to deal with an impending shower, it only exacerbates the traditional Gulfstream track bias that promotes early speed. But after the rain ceases and natural drainage begins to occur, the excess may drain towards the inner rail paths. In those situations the best running lanes can turn out to be a few paths to the outside.
On such a drying out surface — speed is not necessarily going to be the decisive factor. On such a track — similar in fact to the kind we often see after a summer rain at Monmouth Park in New Jersey — a noticeable switch occurs: No longer does early speed dominate. No, on such a track, the edge usually goes to stretch running types who are guided away from the rail towards the outer running lanes.
While Gulfstream Park is not quite like Monmouth (even though both tracks are relatively close to the Atlantic Ocean) Gulfstream can suddenly accent stretch runners when you least expect it.
The simple truth is there are no absolutes here. Wet tracks can and usually do favor speed types, but they also can behave in an unpredictable manner. In many instances the variables in track maintenance coupled to rapidly changing weather can turn a very good, seemingly straightforward track bias upside down. The same is true for the way many horses will perform when track conditions are in flux.
Because it has rained for the past few days in south Florida and more cloud bursts are expected on Saturday, one can only guess how the prevailing conditions will impact the 56th running of the$500,000 Donn Handicap, a Grade-1 stakes for 4-year-olds and up at 1-1/8 miles on the main track.
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On paper, the key horses in this field with their most important credentials are:
#9 SHACKLEFORD: The 2011 Preakness Stakes winner who tired badly in the 1-1/2 mile Belmont Stakes on a very wet racing surface…but that may have been a function of the distance rather than Shackleford’s ability to handle a wet track.
#3 RULER ON ICE: Last year’s longshot winner of the Belmont Stakes on a rain soaked racing surface who was third in the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic last fall.
#8 TRICKMEISTER: A lightly raced undefeated 5-year-old stepping up in class who is a stone cold front runner. Has won three ungraded stakes, one of which was on a very sloppy track at Delaware Park.
#5 SOARING EMPIRE: A Graded stakes winner over this track with strong wet track breeding who prepped for this with a front running fourth on Jan. 14 in an attempt to repeat that 2011 stakes triumph.
#10 HYMN BOOK: A versatile 6-year-old gelding who has developed into a serious racehorse, who by the way is three for four on wet tracks in addition to his good efforts on dry surfaces and turf.
#7 FLAT OUT: The familiar winner of the Jockey Club Gold Cup in the mud at Belmont Park last fall who was a lukewarm and somewhat disappointing betting favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Classic and the G-1 Clark Handicap to close out his 2011 campaign. His most recent outing was a walk around the Gulfstream Park Turf course in which he showed nothing other than he needed the exercise. Recent workouts have been very good, including an intriguing Feb. 5 workout at the Palm Meadows training facility, observed by my clockers on my web site (GradeOneRacing.com). That work, officially recorded as a 4 furlong move in 49 seconds breezing by the GP clockers actually was a solid one mile workout in 1:39, with a gallop out to nine furlongs in 1:53, an excellent move which the GP clockers obviously shut off their stopwatches four furlongs too soon.
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Given that each of the six horses listed above hold good off track form, it might be presumed that a rain soaked GP track will have no impact on the outcome. Frankly this could be the trap that fools even skilled handicappers. Consider how rare it is when three or four horses run close to their expected form in a given race when no track condition issue is in play. Now add the wet track factor and count the numbers of live contenders in the field.
Such is the dilemma most horseplayers will face in this very strong contest as well as in similar instances when there is a deep field of contenders on a racing surface that only will share its inherent secrets to the most observant and sometimes not until the race itself unfolds.
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